| ARIZONA,
USA, July 14: I recently visited Pakistan, the country
of my birth, a country which has been under the
spotlight for the last few years. Here are my impressions
of the current situation in Pakistan, as seen from
the inside through the eyes of a common person on
the street and what he thinks about the future of
the country.
Any
student of history will tell us that dictatorships
are like games of Russian Roulette, with each ending
either in the demise of the country, or the dictator.
Pakistan’s short history is filled with such examples.
Ayub/Yahya’s rule ended with the demise of Pakistan,
as it was created by its founding fathers. Zia’s
regime ended in his own death in mid air. Musharraf's
dictatorship came close to following the Zia example
many times but he survived.
This
phenomenon is not unique to Pakistan. History is
filled with similar examples. The most recent being
that of the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, along with
countless military dictators, all over the Third
World, who have been used and then disposed off,
since the end of the colonial period.
So
the next logical question would be: Who is going
to be the victim of next round of this perennial
Russian Roulette being played between Pakistan and
its army?
Unless
there is a drastic change in the international geo-political
conditions, as had happened in the case of Zia,
it seems very unlikely that the powers that be will
want to eliminate General Musharraf in the near
future because he has time and again proven to be
more loyal than his masters and has been quite willing
to do all of their dirty work whenever asked or
told.
Thus
the odds are that the loser at the end of the next
round, in all probability, will be the country itself,
early signs of which are already visible in what
is happening in Balochistan. An extension of the
current setup will only further increase the deep
sense of deprivation prevalent among the smaller
provinces and ethnic minorities of the country.
But,
before predicting about the future of the country,
one needs to look at the ethnic make-up of the country
to better predict how each of these groups is likely
to react to the continuation of current autocratic
setup, and in case of a flare-up of ethnic rioting
in the country.
Pakistan
consists of many ethnic groups, many of these actually
meet the criteria for being recognized as nations,
as defined by the UN. These nationalities share
nothing other than religion with each other. This
was the basis of the two nation theory, behind the
carving out of Pakistan in the mid 20th century.
These
nations had been in existence thousands of years
before the very idea of Pakistan was conjured up
by the British bureaucracy. These nationalities
include Punjabis, Sindhis, Pashtuns, Balochs, Seraikis,
Kashmiris and Mohajirs. One can easily predict how
each one of them will behave by evaluating the kind
of relationship they have enjoyed with the Pakistan
Army over the last 50 years.
Balochs
and Sindhis have always been treated by the Army
as nothing more than conquered and enslaved aborigines,
with no rights or privileges. Thus they are already
completely alienated, making both of these provinces
volcanoes which are ready to erupt any time. This
is where the trouble is most likely to start in
the next few years. When this happens it will lead
to further unrest among the Seraikis, who have been
relatively calm, but still totally dissatisfied
with the situation.
Army’s
relations with Pashtuns and Kashmiris have also
soured completely over the last few years, due to
General Musharraf's U-turns on Afghanistan and Kashmir.
Although in the past they were the favorite blue
eyed boys of the establishment.
At
present Musharraf’s strongest support base is among
the Mohajirs, because he himself is a Mohajir. This
is the name given to individuals who had migrated
from India at the time of creation of Pakistan and
their descendents. As a matter of fact General Musharraf
himself was born in India and migrated with his
family when he was a young child. He has never made
any secret of his affection for his place of birth
and desire to go back to his roots.
During
his last visit to his motherland he had openly expressed
a desire to come back and settle in his ancestral
house - the Neharwali Haveli in Old Delhi, India.
He has thus been called a proud son of the soil
by some Indian think tanks. This also explains Indian
Governments love affair with Musharraf and his regime,
as he is considered one of their own, and rightly
so. After all, he single handedly has achieved for
India what their whole army could not do in last
50 years, conquer Pakistan.
But
the million dollar question still is: Will he continue
to enjoy the same level of support when things reach
the boiling point in Balochistan and Sindh. I personally
do not think so, I believe that at that time the
Mohajirs of the urban areas of the Sindh will also
be left with no choice but to abandon him.
Signs
of which are visible even today by MQM’s radically
changed rhetoric. MQM is the organization which
represents 99 per cent of mohajirs all over the
world. Altaf Hussain the dynamic and able leader
of MQM has openly started asking for a United States
of Pakistan, because he can clearly see the writing
on the wall.
Like
any dictatorial government the current economic
policies are primarily being framed to appease and
buy the loyalties of the few who can provide support
to this artificially erected system. Therefore although
benefiting a few fat cats, mostly Army Generals
at the top, the current economy has failed to trickle
down to the masses whose lives are getting more
miserable by the day, due to the skyrocketing prices
of daily commodities, giving rise to a sense of
resignation and helplessness among the masses, even
in Punjab and urban Sindh.
Thus,
if and when, there is turmoil in the country, even
these traditionally pro army areas are not likely
to support the Musharraf set up.
Therefore
when there is widespread unrest, which is most likely
to start in either Balochistan or Sindh and then
spread to the Seraiki belt, the General will use
his army’s overwhelming power to crush it. This
will only result in further hatred against the army
and create further disharmony among the provinces
because the Army and bureaucracy in Pakistan is
composed almost solely of Punjabis at lower ranks
and Mohajirs at the top. It has almost no representation
of other nationalities and is actually perceived
as an occupying force by most them.
When
can we expect all of the above to start? Keeping
all of the above facts and figures in mind, one
can safely predict that this modern day Bonaparte
of Pakistan will continue with his autocratic rule
for a little while longer. He will do so with the
full blessing, backing and support of the champions
of democracy and freedom of the world.
But
like all dictators he will outlive his utility in
the next few years. This will be the time when things
will be reaching a point of no return internally
also. Thus one does not have to be a visionary to
foresee some definite changes in the setup over
the next five to ten years.
This
should be of grave concern to the people of Pakistan,
United States and the whole free world. If left
unchecked this dictatorship is going to breed genuine
anger against the General and the Pakistan Army.
Resulting in further chaos in an already unstable
country, which as it is, has already lost all internal
cohesiveness and is only being kept together by
external forces and favorable geo-political conditions!
And when these conditions change it is most likely
to crash like a house of cards.
Therefore
I sincerely believe that the time has come for the
country of my birth to take stock of the gathering
dark clouds and realize that unadulterated democracy
is the only way of salvation for them. Because continuing
to rely on self proclaimed and military appointed
saviors will bring nothing except more death and
destruction to the country.
It
is time the inhabitants of this “Mumlikate-Khudadad”,
name given to Pakistan by its well wishers, which
translated into English means “Country Granted by
God”, end their perennial wait for divine intervention
and start relying on their God given talents.
It
is time for Pakistanis, as a nation to get their
heads out of the sand and face the harsh realities
of the 21st century. The need of the hour is for
Pakistanis to bring true democracy to their country
before it is brought to them by someone else, as
is being currently done in Iraq.
The
writer is a Pakistani Oncologist currently working
in Arizona, USA |
